RTB Solar PV Asset Valuations - Benelux & Nordics (H2 2024)

Critical Market Intelligence for Renewable Energy Professionals

The Benelux & Nordics solar PV market in H2 2024 marked a decisive turning point as the most dramatic valuation correction in Europe finally forced widespread seller capitulation. After buyer expectations collapsed by approximately 40% across all three markets, the second half of 2024 witnessed sellers beginning to adjust their expectations downward for the first time since the market downturn began. This seller adjustment, while still incomplete, enabled increased transaction flow in a region that had been largely frozen by extreme valuation gaps.

This analysis provides definitive benchmarking data for RTB solar PV asset valuations across Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark - markets representing over 25,000 MWp of operational solar capacity where critical investment decisions require accurate valuation intelligence in an environment of unprecedented market stress.

Europe's most congested solar market with 19,000 MWp operational capacity

Buyer Expectations: €44,100-€74,100/MWp

Seller Expectations: €107,500-€134,960/MWp

Transaction Range: €59,115-€114,380/MWp

For historical data, averages and graphical analysis for H2 2024 and Q1 2025, subscribe to see full report.

Market Reality: The Netherlands experienced the steepest absolute valuation decline in the region, with buyer expectations crashing 40.9% from H1 2024 levels (€100,000/MWp to €59,115/MWp). The €62,145/MWp gap between buyer and seller mid-points represents a 105.1% difference, creating severe transaction friction. However, deals are completing 45.6% above buyer mid-points, indicating sellers are beginning to adjust to grid-constrained reality. With 4-6 year connection delays affecting 60% of the country, grid access has become the primary value determinant, creating binary pricing where connected projects command premiums while others face severe discounts.

3,000 MWp operational capacity with ambitious 2,000 MWp development pipeline

Buyer Expectations: €46,700-€51,700/MWp

Seller Expectations: €88,800-€111,920/MWp

Transaction Range: €49,180-€97,970/MWp

For historical data, averages and graphical analysis for H2 2024 and Q1 2025, subscribe to see full report.

Market Reality: Sweden exhibits the lowest buyer expectations in Europe at €49,180/MWp mid-point, down 39.8% from H1 2024 (€81,700/MWp). The €57,960/MWp gap represents a staggering 117.9% difference between buyer and seller mid-points - the widest in the region. Despite this massive disconnect, transactions are achieving 41.3% premiums above buyer expectations, suggesting selective deals for projects with industrial offtake or strategic grid positions. Forward projections indicate further deterioration to €27,500/MWp buyer mid-point in Q1 2025, reflecting the challenging economics of solar deployment at northern latitudes with seasonal production constraints.

3,000 MWp operational capacity in wind-dominated energy system

Buyer Expectations: €45,400-€62,900/MWp

Seller Expectations: €98,150-€123,440/MWp

Transaction Range: €54,148-€106,175/MWp

For historical data, averages and graphical analysis for H2 2024 and Q1 2025, subscribe to see full report.

Market Reality: Denmark witnessed dramatic market stress in H2 2024, with buyer expectations plummeting 40.4% from H1 levels (€90,850/MWp to €54,148/MWp). High-profile developer capitulations saw portfolios liquidated for minimal value, creating ripple effects across the market. The €60,052/MWp gap represents a 111.0% difference between buyer and seller mid-points, yet transactions achieved 43.7% premiums above buyer expectations. This suggests distressed asset opportunities for well-capitalized buyers as the market faces continued downward pressure, with Q1 2025 projections indicating further decline to €30,000/MWp buyer mid-point.

Regional Market Convergence Analysis: The H2 2024 Inflection Point

Key Finding: The Benelux & Nordics region experienced the most severe buyer expectation compression in Europe, with remarkably consistent 39-41% declines across all markets:

• Netherlands: 40.9% decline (€100,000/MWp to €59,115/MWp)
• Sweden: 39.8% decline (€81,700/MWp to €49,180/MWp)
• Denmark: 40.4% decline (€90,850/MWp to €54,148/MWp)

Critical Insight: This uniform pattern indicates a regional correction rather than country-specific factors, with transaction premiums above buyer expectations clustering around 41-46% across all markets, suggesting coordinated market dynamics despite different grid and regulatory environments.

Market Maturity vs. Valuation Pressure

Development-to-Operational Ratios Reveal Market Dynamics:

• Netherlands: 0.26x (mature market with severe grid constraints)
• Sweden: 0.67x (highest growth ratio supporting selective opportunities)
• Denmark: 0.50x (balanced maturity amid market stress)

Investment Implication: Despite moderate development pipelines relative to operational capacity, severe grid constraints and seasonal production challenges have created unique valuation pressures not seen in other European regions.

Grid Connection Crisis: The Defining Value Driver

Connection Delays Creating Market Segmentation:

• Netherlands: 4-6 years (crisis-level delays creating binary valuations)
• Sweden: 2-4 years (distance challenges to southern load centers)
• Denmark: 2-3 years (better managed but capacity limits emerging)

Valuation Impact: Projects with secured grid connections command premiums often exceeding 100% over those still awaiting connection, with the Netherlands showing the most extreme connection premium due to grid crisis conditions.

BESS Integration: Limited but Growing

Regional BESS Deployment Reflects Different System Needs:

• Netherlands: 1,000 MW development (grid optimization focus)
• Sweden: 800 MW development (industrial applications emphasis)
• Denmark: 600 MW development (wind integration strategy)

Strategic Insight: BESS deployment remains modest compared to solar pipelines but is gaining momentum as a grid constraint mitigation strategy, with hybrid projects commanding 20-40% valuation premiums over standalone solar.

What This Summary Doesn't Show

The complete H2 2024 report, and new Q1 2025 reports include deeper insights and critical intelligence:

• Graphical examples showing buy-side expectations, sell-side expectations, and typical transaction ranges
• Identifying key asset owners in relevant markets
• Permitting efficiency analysis by region and project type
• Corporate PPA market pricing evolution and offtaker appetite
• Market opportunities in countries unique market structures

Critical Market Update: H2 2024 to Q1 2025

⚠️ Important: These valuations reflect H2 2024 market conditions during a period of significant regional divergence. The market has continued evolving:

• Supply and demand shifts
• New auction mechanisms
• Grid infrastructure developments
• Corporate PPA market expansion

Our Q1 2025 reports capture the latest post-adjustment market dynamics with updated valuations reflecting continued regional divergence.

Complete RTB Asset Valuation Suite

Latest Reports for Q1 2025 Now Available to Subscribers for all of these markets:

Solar PV: Western Europe | Southern Europe | Benelux & Nordics | CEFTA & Eastern Europe

BESS: Western Europe | Southern Europe | Benelux & Nordics | CEFTA & Eastern Europe

Onshore Wind: Western Europe | Southern Europe | Benelux & Nordics | CEFTA & Eastern Europe

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Financier Tier Subscription Includes: ✅ Complete H2 2024 and Q1 2025 reports with full regional price trend analysis ✅ All Q1 2025 updated valuation benchmarking across 12 reports spanning Europe ✅ Quarterly market updates tracking ongoing supply, demand, market and regulatory impacts ✅ Major asset owner portfolio analysis across all key European markets ✅ Direct analyst access for region-specific investment intelligence

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